In 2000, the year in which the internet bubble burst, the market's year-to-date return through November of that year was dismal - a loss of around 10%. To illustrate how we gain no insight into December's direction from what came prior, consider the following examples: None of the differences between the chart's various columns is significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. These odds are summarized in the accompanying chart, which is based on the Dow's performance since its creation in 1896. Furthermore, those odds aren't significantly affected by whether the stock market is overvalued, as it is currently according to any of a number of indicators. Regardless of whether we've been in a bull or a bear market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA in December rises about 70% of the time. While that may appear to be a prediction that the bull market will continue for at least another month, it actually reflects the odds that exist every year. Dow Industrials rise about 70% of the time in December
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